Welcome to 2017!

We have just come off the hottest year on record in the globe. We are now starting much cooler in 2017 than we experienced in 2016. Let’s hope this trend continues and temperatures continue to lower.

The Polar Vortex is still in North America. Here is the 7 day average up to January 10. As long as the polar vortex is here, we have a chance at great (wintry) weather. It doesn’t guarantee us wintry weather, it just provides us a chance. You can see the heights slightly lower in SW BC, but it has a greater effect the further North and East you go in BC.

Here is the teleconnection chart.

First, the PNA. The PNA stands for Pacific/North American teleconnection. A positive PNA promotes ridging on the west coast of Canada. Here is what the effects of the PNA looks like in a neutral state for January:

The next item on the chart is the NAO, which is the North Atlantic Oscillation. It’s forecast to be slightly negative by January 10, but you can see it’s trending positive. Here’s what the temperature effects looks like for January when it’s positive:

Now we have the last two items on the chart, the EPO and WPO which stands for East and West Pacific Oscillation.

I know I’m showing you maps of the USA, so you will have to just look at the extreme NW side of the country to look at the effects on BC.

Here is the current value of the Southern Oscillation Index:

SOI values for 02 Jan 2017
Average for last 30 days -18.64
Average for last 90 days -8.03
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 36.75

 

 

The SOI is often used as an indicator of the state of the ENSO. The ENSO is simply what we use to determine if we’re currently in a La Niña or El Niño. SOI values below -8 indicates an El Nino, and values above 8 indicates a La Niña. Values in-between -8 and 8 are more of a neutral state.

Now that I’ve bored you with technical information, let’s talk about why you came here. In my first January 1-10 post, I hyped up some bitter cold. The cold air did arrive as advertised, but most of the bitter cold air did not make it through.

On the SW BC coast, we will probably not experience anything much colder than we are through January 10.





 

 

 

As we warm up this weekend, we have to watch for a snowstorm. It is too early to give any numbers, so keep checking the local radio stations, twitter, or Facebook for updates. I might give an update also later this week.

 

As always, I welcome feedback, and I will continue to experiment on formatting and what information I provide in my posts.