Welcome to the new year!

No, this was not posted or made on January 1st, but there is a potentially dangerous period of temperatures for those unprepared.

Let’s start with the temperature probabilities by NOAA:

That’s about as confident as you will see a forecast by NOAA for below normal temperatures over the PNW and southwest BC.

Here are some charts showing the anomaly of how cold it will be relative to normal:

The pink colours are extremely cold temperatures relative to normal. These are showing 5 day intervals starting January 2nd, 2017. The temperatures on the charts depict roughly -17C below normal anomalies for much of BC. I’m stopping at January 10 because the further out you go, the less accurate the models are.

Now I will show you the height anomalies from the GEFS, which is an ensemble model. That means the model takes a bunch of model runs, and shows the outcome that is the most likely based on the spread of all the other model runs.


The lowest height anomalies are centered over SW BC, and the coldest temperature anomalies are forecast for central BC with cold temperature anomalies reaching southern BC. If you like the cold weather, you will want the blocking (ridge of high pressure) over Alaska and the Atlantic ocean to further strengthen to confine the lower heights in the same general areas.

Here’s the GEFS model showing the 2m temps in Fahrenheit for January 10.

Here is the probability map on Jan 10 from the Canadian model ensembles for experiencing below 10F temps for the minimum temperature:

Finally here’s the last snowfall map for this basic overview:

This is the GFS run from this afternoon:

This is generally a 6 inches of snow forecast from now until January 6, 2017 for the lower mainland of BC, and higher elsewhere. Now there’s a huge disclaimer, it’s hard to accurately predict snow from 24 hours out of a snow event, let alone 10 days. What you see here for snow is not what will happen, but it’s to help have a point we can use to analyze the trend.

Synopsis:
Expect below normal temperatures for at least the first 10 days of January, 2017 over much if not all of British Columbia. Be prepared for snow, and get winter tires if you haven’t yet.  I will be going into more detail of the first 5 days of January as we get closer to NYE and NYD. If you have spotted an error, please comment on here or send me a message on Twitter at stuffradio. Stay tuned for further updates.