We are now in February. We have achieved something we haven’t since 2012, two months in a row of below normal temperatures! Here’s a look at last months temperature anomaly.

You can see a large swath of at least -3C below normal temperatures focused on the Northwest coast of the Continental United States and Southwest Canada.

For the past week, I was keeping an eye on weather models to see how warm it would be getting. Many of us in Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley had quite a bit of snow in December and the beginning of January. After the first week of January, the temperatures started to moderate quite a bit. Here’s an example of what model outputs I was saving just for my heat seeking pleasure:

 

 

As you can see, this model was initialized on January 30. As of January 31, things have really started to change. Here’s a snowfall output that won’t verify for the same date above that was created just the previous day:

 

Now we have some media hype starting to percolate about this upcoming weekend and snow. The major problem is, some models have been flip flopping from run to run, while others (like the GEM I showed above) have been consistent in showing large amounts of snow for the south coast. Both the GFS and ECMWF have been verifying below a .900 level the last 7 days. Anything with a .900 score and above is generally considered to be good. The GFS has had a score of .877 and the ECMWF has had a score of .897 in the last 7 days.

Around February 9th, both the ECMWF and GFS models are showing us entering into a +PNA and +EPO teleconnection pattern. This generally means the west coast enters a warm wet period.

Based on the current modeling data available, I’m expecting a cool to normal beginning of the month with above normal precipitation with a gradual warming trend and normal to possibly below normal average precipitation to end the month.