Was July 2017 hot? Yes. Was it record breaking hot? Not according to this one model. We actually ended up below normal. Is this model accurate about last month? I’m not sure, we’ll have to see in the days ahead to see if other models agree.
Let’s take a look at the biggest event of the past month, the forest fires.
This map doesn’t cover all of BC, but you can see where the driest regions are in comparison to where the wildfires are concentrated.
The next 5-7 days will likely be unbearable for many. Here’s a look at the temperature and precipitation probability maps.
To figure out how much hotter than normal it will get, have a look at the 00Z GFS map. Southwest BC will generally feel 10-14C above normal in 72 hours (from this post).
The temperatures depicted in the GFS have been fluctuating mostly between 36C to 40C for Abbotsford (YXX). The operational model (the model run that does not take multiple model runs into account) has been naturally the most aggressive in its forecasts. Below is a forecast based on the operational 00Z GFS run from July 31, 2017 for the next 10 days.
Here’s a forecast based on the latest available model for the GEFS which is using the ensembles to give a better weighted forecast. I don’t have a forecast available for the GEFS like I do with the GFS, so you will just have to make do with the following:
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) weekly model came out today. The model is advertising the first half of August will feature above normal temperatures at least, followed by below normal temperatures. The model can change a lot, so we’ll see what it says the next few runs. The model updates every Thursday and Monday.
What are we looking at for the next three months? Generally, I think going with climatology is a good bet at this point. We’ll stay mostly dry for August, then slowly break into a wetter than normal regime as we head into October/November. Two seasonal models have just updated today and yesterday. They are both wetter than normal by October, but the CanSIPS model is drier than normal for August/September/October and the CFS is wetter than normal for the same time period. The CanSIPS is predicting a dry August, normal September and wet October, and the CFS is predicting a normal August for much of BC, and wet September and October. Here are some maps to show what I was just saying in a visual way.
Finally… many of you are looking forward to winter already, and asking about snow. Ok, not many people have been asking me about snow yet, but I’m sure some are thinking about it. Odds of La Niña have been increasing over the past few months, however based on the IRI probabilities from July 19, we still have a better chance at a Neutral winter. If you like a winter with varied weather, with the possibilities of snow, no snow, wet weather (lots of rain), you will love neutral winters, if you like warm and possibly dry weather (with periods of wet weather), you would love El Niños. There are chances we will have a snowy winter, but it’s too early to say. I’ll keep the blog updated with snow chances as we go into September, October and early November.